AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 25

Rochester Americans at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Rochester Americans
4:5
Final
Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

ROCLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
12%88%
xG
1.75.9
High danger
413
Chances
824
Shots
1549

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0246P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
LV above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

15Shots on goal49
8Scoring chances24
4High-danger chances13
1.68Expected goals5.92

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–193–100–60.6–2.3
2nd5–184–114–60.8–2.5
3rd3–121–30–10.2–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ROC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ROC116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Tokarski
Shots faced
49
Saves
44
Allowed
5
xGA
5.92
GSAx
+0.92
Felix Sandström
Shots faced
15
Saves
11
Allowed
4
xGA
1.68
GSAx
-2.32

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:50Penalty
  • 1st 3:50Penalty
  • 1st 14:19Penalty
  • 1st 15:38Lukáš Rousek (1–0)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 1st 16:33Penalty
  • 2nd 1:43Alexis Gendron (1–1)medium · 18 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 2nd 8:13Penalty
  • 2nd 9:13Samu Tuomaala (1–2)5v4 · high · 27 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 2nd 9:42Damien Giroux (2–2)low · 37 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 2nd 11:49Tanner Laczynski (2–3)medium · 7 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 2nd 14:53Penalty
  • 2nd 14:53Penalty
  • 2nd 14:53Penalty
  • 2nd 15:23Penalty
  • 2nd 15:56Brandon Biro (3–3)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 3rd 1:22Penalty
  • 3rd 2:46Penalty
  • 3rd 2:52Tyson Kozak (4–3)medium · 13 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 3rd 5:41Penalty
  • 3rd 7:04Tanner Laczynski (4–4)5v4 · medium · 17 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 7:34Penalty
  • 3rd 7:34Penalty
  • 3rd 10:55Penalty
  • 3rd 11:52Alexis Gendron (4–5)5v4 · low · 54 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty