AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 25

Belleville Senators at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Belleville Senators
3:4
Final / OT
Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

BELHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
24%76%
xG
2.74.8
High danger
46
Chances
1221
Shots
2544

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HFD above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal44
12Scoring chances21
4High-danger chances6
2.69Expected goals4.78

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–133–101–20.6–1.5
2nd6–122–72–20.7–1.4
3rd11–127–31–11.2–1.0
OT2–70–10–10.2–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HFD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HFD116:56 of the 3rd3:041:50+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kevin Mandolese
Shots faced
44
Saves
40
Allowed
4
xGA
4.78
GSAx
+0.78
Dylan Garand
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
2.69
GSAx
-0.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:39Penalty
  • 1st 8:57Penalty
  • 1st 8:57Penalty
  • 1st 16:42Penalty
  • 1st 18:14Penalty
  • 1st 18:26Maxence Guenette (1–0)medium · 13 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 0:53Orrin Centazzo (2–0)high · 8 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 2:05Penalty
  • 2nd 3:37Brennan Othmann (2–1)5v4 · high · 17 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 2nd 9:26Adam Sýkora (2–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 2nd 17:57Penalty
  • 3rd 5:35Angus Crookshank (3–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 6:03Penalty
  • 3rd 14:29Penalty
  • 3rd 14:29Penalty
  • 3rd 18:46Brennan Othmann (3–3)high · 9 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • OT 4:19Riley Nash (3–4)grade A · 8 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese