AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 25

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds
4:2
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CVBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
70%30%
xG
3.01.6
High danger
22
Chances
116
Shots
3722

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal22
11Scoring chances6
2High-danger chances2
3.05Expected goals1.60

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st17–54–11–01.4–0.2
2nd9–102–40–10.6–0.9
3rd11–75–11–11.0–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell
Shots faced
37
Saves
33
Allowed
4
xGA
3.05
GSAx
-0.95
Aleš Stezka
Shots faced
22
Saves
20
Allowed
2
xGA
1.60
GSAx
-0.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:56Shane Wright (1–0)low · wrist · 25 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 1st 7:53Tucker Robertson (2–0)low · wrist · 30 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 1st 8:23Penalty
  • 2nd 6:09Matvey Petrov (2–1)low · wrist · 51 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 2nd 7:40Greg McKegg (2–2)grade A · backhand · rebound · 11 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 2nd 17:46Penalty
  • 3rd 3:38Penalty
  • 3rd 4:16Penalty
  • 3rd 5:38Penalty
  • 3rd 10:28Penalty
  • 3rd 12:32Penalty
  • 3rd 13:44Kole Lind (3–2)5v4 · medium · wrist · 18 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 3rd 19:00Max McCormick (4–2)empty net · medium · wrist · 29 ft · beat Jack Campbell