Iowa Wild at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Iowa Wild

1:2

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

IAHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

71%29%

xG: 3.32.2
High danger: 73
Chances: 118
Shots: 2720

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal20

11Scoring chances8

7High-danger chances3

3.27Expected goals2.17

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–10	2–3	0–2	0.3–1.1
2nd	19–5	9–3	7–1	2.7–0.6
3rd	5–5	0–2	0–0	0.3–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.26
GSAx: +2.26

Zane McIntyre

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 18
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.17
GSAx: +0.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:07Penalty
1st 9:47Ethen Frank (0–1)5v4 · low · 52 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
1st 13:26Penalty
1st 13:31Alex Limoges (0–2)5v4 · grade A · 10 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
1st 18:34Penalty
2nd 8:56Penalty
2nd 10:31Jake Lucchini (1–2)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 12:07Penalty
2nd 19:00Penalty
3rd 9:01Penalty
3rd 17:35Penalty