AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, November 29

Belleville Senators at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Belleville Senators
6:3
Final
Utica Comets

The sheet

BELUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
40%60%
xG
2.43.6
High danger
44
Chances
915
Shots
2636

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
UTC above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal36
9Scoring chances15
4High-danger chances4
2.40Expected goals3.56

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–162–42–10.8–1.3
2nd8–124–80–30.9–1.4
3rd9–83–32–00.8–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

UTC−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
UTC212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard
Shots faced
36
Saves
33
Allowed
3
xGA
3.56
GSAx
+0.56
Erik Källgren
Shots faced
26
Saves
20
Allowed
6
xGA
2.40
GSAx
-3.60

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:44Justin Dowling (0–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 1st 3:48Penalty
  • 1st 12:18Lassi Thomson (1–1)low · 32 ft · beat Erik Källgren
  • 1st 17:00Graeme Clarke (1–2)low · 35 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 4:17Penalty
  • 2nd 10:27Penalty
  • 2nd 12:20Chase Stillman (1–3)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 13:33Roby Järventie (2–3)medium · 18 ft · beat Erik Källgren
  • 2nd 17:02Penalty
  • 2nd 19:23Matthew Boucher (3–3)medium · 18 ft · beat Erik Källgren
  • 3rd 1:11Penalty
  • 3rd 4:24Angus Crookshank (4–3)low · rebound · 48 ft · beat Erik Källgren
  • 3rd 6:30Garrett Pilon (5–3)high · 20 ft · beat Erik Källgren
  • 3rd 18:04Dillon Heatherington (6–3)empty net · low · 167 ft · beat Erik Källgren