AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, November 29

Hershey Bears at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Hershey Bears
7:5
Final
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

HERWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
25%75%
xG
1.92.9
High danger
35
Chances
410
Shots
2527

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
WBS above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal27
4Scoring chances10
3High-danger chances5
1.94Expected goals2.88

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–100–40–20.5–1.3
2nd9–62–32–10.9–0.5
3rd6–112–31–20.6–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

WBS−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
WBS212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
27
Saves
22
Allowed
5
xGA
2.88
GSAx
-2.12
Joel Blomqvist
Shots faced
19
Saves
14
Allowed
5
xGA
1.37
GSAx
-3.63
Magnus Hellberg
Shots faced
6
Saves
4
Allowed
2
xGA
0.58
GSAx
-1.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:35Penalty
  • 1st 3:07Samuel Houde (0–1)5v4 · medium · 26 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 1st 5:23Samuel Houde (0–2)low · 22 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 1st 6:37Penalty
  • 1st 10:09Penalty
  • 1st 12:13Vincent Iorio (1–2)low · 34 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
  • 1st 12:58Penalty
  • 1st 13:09Rem Pitlick (1–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 1st 14:59Penalty
  • 1st 17:01Penalty
  • 2nd 1:53Penalty
  • 2nd 8:17Penalty
  • 2nd 9:33Mike Sgarbossa (2–3)5v4 · low · 55 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
  • 2nd 11:09Joe Snively (3–3)high · 11 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
  • 2nd 15:34Pierrick Dubé (4–3)low · 31 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
  • 2nd 18:53Riley Sutter (5–3)high · 13 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
  • 3rd 6:15Joona Koppanen (5–4)medium · 15 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 7:54Penalty
  • 3rd 10:17Ivan Miroshnichenko (6–4)high · 8 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 17:16Jonathan Gruden (6–5)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 18:17Joe Snively (7–5)empty net · low · 69 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 18:48Penalty