Bakersfield Condors at Henderson Silver Knights

The Dollar Loan Center · Henderson, NV

Bakersfield Condors

4:3

Final / SO

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

BAKHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 3.64.8
High danger: 57
Chances: 922
Shots: 3042

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal42

9Scoring chances22

5High-danger chances7

3.64Expected goals4.75

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	3–3	2–2	0.9–0.7
2nd	8–19	2–10	1–4	0.7–2.5
3rd	11–6	4–5	2–1	1.8–0.8
OT	3–7	0–4	0–0	0.2–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:15	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 39
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.76
GSAx: +1.76

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.64
GSAx: +0.64

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:45Penalty
1st 7:14Cam Dineen (1–0)5v4 · low · wrist · 58 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 7:45Penalty
1st 8:05Adam Cracknell (1–1)5v4 · high · wrist · 13 ft · beat Jack Campbell
1st 9:22Jayden Grubbe (2–1)high · tip · 20 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 9:51Penalty
1st 13:09Penalty
2nd 0:09Penalty
2nd 8:49Penalty
2nd 11:23Penalty
2nd 12:47Jonas Røndbjerg (2–2)5v4 · grade A · snap · rebound · 17 ft · beat Jack Campbell
2nd 13:30Penalty
2nd 19:10Penalty
3rd 4:35Penalty
3rd 6:19Sheldon Rempal (2–3)5v4 · medium · wrist · 21 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 11:41Penalty
3rd 19:11Raphael Lavoie (3–3)grade A · slap · 30 ft · beat Jiří Patera
OT 3:52Penalty