Hershey Bears at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Hershey Bears

4:2

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

HERCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 3.03.5
High danger: 67
Chances: 1316
Shots: 2429

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal29

13Scoring chances16

6High-danger chances7

3.01Expected goals3.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–11	2–5	2–2	0.6–1.2
2nd	10–10	7–5	2–2	1.5–1.1
3rd	9–8	4–6	2–3	0.9–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	10:41	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.46
GSAx: +1.46

Spencer Knight

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 20
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.01
GSAx: -0.99

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:12Riley Sutter (1–0)high · rebound · 8 ft · beat Spencer Knight
1st 13:03Ivan Miroshnichenko (2–0)high · rebound · 8 ft · beat Spencer Knight
1st 15:35Penalty
1st 18:19Penalty
2nd 7:01Patrick Khodorenko (2–1)low · 43 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 9:35Penalty
2nd 11:30Pierrick Dubé (3–1)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Spencer Knight
2nd 17:37Pierrick Dubé (4–1)low · rebound · 41 ft · beat Spencer Knight
2nd 19:39Penalty
3rd 2:49Mackie Samoskevich (4–2)high · 8 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 5:09Penalty