Milwaukee Admirals at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Milwaukee Admirals

1:4

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

MILGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 3.83.2
High danger: 77
Chances: 1414
Shots: 3629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal29

14Scoring chances14

7High-danger chances7

3.77Expected goals3.16

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–8	7–3	4–0	1.6–0.6
2nd	9–15	4–9	2–6	1.2–2.0
3rd	12–6	3–2	1–1	1.0–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 35
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.77
GSAx: +2.77

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.16
GSAx: -0.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:02Penalty
1st 9:27Penalty
1st 17:59Jared McIsaac (0–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 4:05Simon Edvinsson (0–2)low · 22 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 8:53Penalty
2nd 12:55Penalty
2nd 14:17Fedor Svechkov (1–2)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 14:51Penalty
3rd 8:06Simon Edvinsson (1–3)low · 31 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 11:52Penalty
3rd 13:15Penalty
3rd 17:23Penalty
3rd 18:56Joel L’Esperance (1–4)empty net · high · 11 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov