AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 1

Toronto Marlies at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Toronto Marlies
3:4
Final
Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

TORSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
70%30%
xG
3.42.1
High danger
64
Chances
138
Shots
3126

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SYR above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal26
13Scoring chances8
6High-danger chances4
3.42Expected goals2.14

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–143–32–21.0–1.0
2nd8–83–20–10.7–0.7
3rd14–47–34–11.7–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR30:00 of the 3rd20:0016:13+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
31
Saves
28
Allowed
3
xGA
3.42
GSAx
+0.42
Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
26
Saves
22
Allowed
4
xGA
2.14
GSAx
-1.86

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 13:29Penalty
  • 1st 16:18Penalty
  • 1st 16:22Mitchell Chaffee (0–1)5v4 · high · 34 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 16:51Penalty
  • 1st 19:58Shawn Element (0–2)high · 20 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 2:28Penalty
  • 2nd 6:48Penalty
  • 2nd 6:48Penalty
  • 2nd 9:44Gage Goncalves (0–3)low · 35 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 11:11Penalty
  • 2nd 14:46Penalty
  • 2nd 17:21Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 4:44Penalty
  • 3rd 6:48Penalty
  • 3rd 8:21Pontus Holmberg (1–3)5v4 · medium · 13 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 17:12Penalty
  • 3rd 17:12Penalty
  • 3rd 18:24Pontus Holmberg (2–3)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 19:11Daniel Walcott (2–4)empty net · medium · 12 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 19:51Robert Mastrosimone (3–4)high · 13 ft · beat Matt Tomkins