Rockford IceHogs at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Rockford IceHogs

2:4

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

RFDMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

46%54%

xG: 4.24.6
High danger: 99
Chances: 1215
Shots: 3337

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal37

12Scoring chances15

9High-danger chances9

4.21Expected goals4.62

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–6	9–2	6–1	2.3–0.6
2nd	12–24	3–11	3–8	1.4–3.5
3rd	9–7	0–2	0–0	0.5–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 33
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.62
GSAx: +0.62

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.21
GSAx: +2.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:18Penalty
1st 1:18Penalty
1st 2:02Ethan Del Mastro (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Collin Delia
1st 7:12Penalty
1st 7:15Penalty
1st 7:52Dominic Toninato (1–1)low · 18 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 11:33Penalty
1st 17:24Penalty
1st 17:24Penalty
2nd 1:37Penalty
2nd 9:53Penalty
2nd 10:36Wyatt Bongiovanni (1–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 19 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 12:23Penalty
2nd 14:38Penalty
2nd 14:38Penalty
2nd 17:22Ryder Rolston (2–2)grade A · 10 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 18:31Jeffrey Viel (2–3)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 19:38Penalty
3rd 19:05Jeff Malott (2–4)empty net · low · 61 ft · beat Drew Commesso