Iowa Wild at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Iowa Wild

5:1

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

IACOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 3.14.3
High danger: 610
Chances: 1517
Shots: 2641

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal41

15Scoring chances17

6High-danger chances10

3.07Expected goals4.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–12	3–4	1–3	0.6–0.9
2nd	10–16	7–9	2–4	1.4–2.1
3rd	9–13	5–4	3–3	1.1–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	3	3:40 of the 3rd	16:20	16:06	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 40
Allowed: 1
xGA: 4.31
GSAx: +3.31

Arvid Holm

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.07
GSAx: -1.93

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:06Penalty
1st 4:33Jujhar Khaira (1–0)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Arvid Holm
1st 8:35Penalty
1st 8:35Penalty
1st 16:22Penalty
2nd 13:09Penalty
2nd 14:16Joel Teasdale (2–0)5v4 · medium · 9 ft · beat Arvid Holm
2nd 19:17Penalty
3rd 3:40Daemon Hunt (3–0)low · 61 ft · beat Arvid Holm
3rd 4:29Penalty
3rd 4:29Penalty
3rd 4:29Penalty
3rd 4:29Penalty
3rd 4:29Penalty
3rd 10:08Penalty
3rd 11:48Riley Tufte (3–1)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 12:02Sammy Walker (4–1)high · 6 ft · beat Arvid Holm
3rd 14:39Nic Petan (5–1)empty net · low · 30 ft · beat Arvid Holm
3rd 19:00Penalty