AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 1

Texas Stars at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Texas Stars
4:3
Final / SO
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

TEXBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
76%24%
xG
3.82.5
High danger
73
Chances
168
Shots
3732

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal32
16Scoring chances8
7High-danger chances3
3.82Expected goals2.54

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–118–43–01.4–0.9
2nd10–123–32–21.0–1.0
3rd11–94–12–11.0–0.7
OT4–01–00–00.3–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX117:28 of the 3rd2:321:07+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
37
Saves
34
Allowed
3
xGA
3.82
GSAx
+0.82
Rémi Poirier
Shots faced
32
Saves
29
Allowed
3
xGA
2.54
GSAx
-0.46

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:29Logan Stankoven (1–0)high · wrist · 12 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 7:22Penalty
  • 1st 13:19Penalty
  • 1st 15:29Penalty
  • 1st 18:06Penalty
  • 2nd 12:26Penalty
  • 2nd 18:39Cameron Wright (1–1)high · wrist · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 3rd 2:37Lane Pederson (1–2)high · wrist · 7 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 3rd 16:48Oskar Bäck (2–2)low · tip · 59 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 17:28Drake Caggiula (2–3)low · wrist · 9 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 3rd 18:35Curtis McKenzie (3–3)high · wrist · 10 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • OT 2:33Penalty
  • OT 2:33Penalty