Calgary Wranglers at Henderson Silver Knights

The Dollar Loan Center · Henderson, NV

Calgary Wranglers

2:1

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

CGYHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

61%39%

xG: 2.82.6
High danger: 55
Chances: 109
Shots: 3233

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal33

10Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances5

2.76Expected goals2.55

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–9	3–2	2–2	0.8–0.6
2nd	13–12	5–3	2–1	1.4–1.0
3rd	8–12	2–4	1–2	0.6–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Wolf

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: +1.55

Jordan Papirny

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.76
GSAx: +0.76

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:43Clark Bishop (1–0)high · tip · 10 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
1st 10:37Penalty
1st 12:29Penalty
2nd 1:53Penalty
2nd 7:54Penalty
2nd 7:54Penalty
2nd 7:54Penalty
2nd 11:00Penalty
2nd 16:33Brady Lyle (2–0)grade A · snap · rebound · 14 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
2nd 19:19Penalty
2nd 19:39Penalty
3rd 3:30Penalty
3rd 4:28Mason Morelli (2–1)5v4 · low · wrist · 29 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
3rd 6:17Penalty
3rd 9:53Penalty
3rd 16:07Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty