AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 2

Hershey Bears at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Hershey Bears
5:2
Final
Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

HERCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
38%62%
xG
2.94.3
High danger
78
Chances
1417
Shots
2136

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CLT above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal36
14Scoring chances17
7High-danger chances8
2.89Expected goals4.25

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–95–53–31.1–1.2
2nd7–151–70–30.4–1.8
3rd9–128–54–21.5–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CLT−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CLT34:38 of the 3rd15:229:55+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
36
Saves
34
Allowed
2
xGA
4.25
GSAx
+2.25
Ludovic Waeber
Shots faced
21
Saves
16
Allowed
5
xGA
2.89
GSAx
-2.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:14Penalty
  • 1st 6:12Uvis Balinskis (0–1)low · 35 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 1st 8:29Penalty
  • 2nd 4:41Aaron Ness (1–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
  • 2nd 5:40Penalty
  • 2nd 5:40Penalty
  • 2nd 9:03Penalty
  • 2nd 11:15Ethen Frank (2–1)low · 45 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
  • 2nd 15:04Ethen Frank (3–1)low · 38 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
  • 3rd 4:38Joe Snively (4–1)grade A · 9 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
  • 3rd 6:41Lucas Carlsson (4–2)medium · 4 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 8:24Penalty
  • 3rd 8:24Penalty
  • 3rd 8:24Penalty
  • 3rd 15:35Penalty
  • 3rd 17:22Penalty
  • 3rd 17:22Penalty
  • 3rd 17:22Penalty
  • 3rd 17:57Penalty
  • 3rd 17:57Ethen Frank (5–2)empty net · medium · 33 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber