Providence Bruins at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Providence Bruins

4:3

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

PROBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 2.02.5
High danger: 32
Chances: 78
Shots: 2232

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal32

7Scoring chances8

3High-danger chances2

1.97Expected goals2.48

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–12	0–4	0–2	0.2–1.2
2nd	9–9	4–3	1–0	0.9–0.5
3rd	6–11	3–1	2–0	0.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.48
GSAx: -0.52

Ken Appleby

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.96
GSAx: -2.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:08Penalty
1st 13:08Dennis Cholowski (0–1)low · 61 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 14:58Penalty
1st 16:40Kyle MacLean (0–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 0:08Justin Brazeau (1–2)medium · 32 ft · beat Ken Appleby
2nd 0:29Penalty
2nd 3:00Anthony Richard (2–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Ken Appleby
2nd 14:32Penalty
2nd 18:55Penalty
3rd 1:58Cole Bardreau (2–3)low · 35 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 4:15Brett Harrison (3–3)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Ken Appleby
3rd 8:30Anthony Richard (4–3)high · 12 ft · beat Ken Appleby
3rd 19:30Penalty