Grand Rapids Griffins at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Grand Rapids Griffins

2:4

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

GRMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

29%71%

xG: 2.83.4
High danger: 27
Chances: 1214
Shots: 3032

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal32

12Scoring chances14

2High-danger chances7

2.79Expected goals3.44

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–7	5–2	1–1	1.3–0.8
2nd	5–18	2–8	1–2	0.6–1.7
3rd	12–7	5–4	0–4	1.0–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	3	7:47 of the 3rd	12:13	12:13	+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael Hutchinson

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.44
GSAx: -0.56

Troy Grosenick

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.79
GSAx: +0.79

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:57Penalty
1st 4:57Penalty
1st 14:19Penalty
1st 14:53Elmer Söderblom (1–0)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
1st 15:43Penalty
1st 19:09Penalty
2nd 4:04Penalty
2nd 5:58Penalty
2nd 14:42Adam Wilsby (1–1)low · 53 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
2nd 15:27Penalty
3rd 1:45Joakim Kemell (1–2)high · 10 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
3rd 4:09Egor Afanasyev (1–3)low · 46 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
3rd 6:34Penalty
3rd 7:47Egor Afanasyev (1–4)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 22 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
3rd 14:17Penalty
3rd 15:41Carter Mazur (2–4)5v4 · medium · 41 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
3rd 18:13Penalty