Rochester Americans at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Rochester Americans

2:4

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

ROCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 2.03.0
High danger: 23
Chances: 713
Shots: 2434

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal34

7Scoring chances13

2High-danger chances3

2.01Expected goals2.95

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–13	2–7	0–1	0.6–1.4
2nd	6–13	2–4	1–1	0.6–1.1
3rd	10–8	3–2	1–1	0.9–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.95
GSAx: -1.05

Kevin Mandolese

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.01
GSAx: +0.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:31Penalty
1st 4:39Penalty
1st 12:28Penalty
1st 15:40Penalty
1st 17:29Jiří Kulich (1–0)5v4 · low · 48 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
1st 18:35Penalty
2nd 3:43Penalty
2nd 9:05Penalty
2nd 9:54Egor Sokolov (1–1)5v4 · low · 46 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 10:39Penalty
2nd 12:41Zack Ostapchuk (1–2)low · 47 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 13:27Jiří Kulich (2–2)high · 18 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
2nd 19:56Roby Järventie (2–3)high · rebound · 16 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 6:35Zack Ostapchuk (2–4)high · 18 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 16:56Penalty