San Diego Gulls at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

San Diego Gulls

4:1

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

SDCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

81%19%

xG: 3.71.9
High danger: 103
Chances: 144
Shots: 3025

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal25

14Scoring chances4

10High-danger chances3

3.67Expected goals1.95

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–7	5–1	2–0	1.6–0.3
2nd	9–10	4–2	3–2	1.0–1.2
3rd	6–8	5–1	5–1	1.1–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	3	10:27 of the 3rd	9:33	9:33	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Keith Kinkaid

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.67
GSAx: -0.33

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.95
GSAx: +0.95

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:52Penalty
1st 4:48Penalty
1st 6:20Jacob Perreault (1–0)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
1st 12:24Penalty
1st 15:34Penalty
2nd 2:20Penalty
2nd 4:18Brayden Tracey (2–0)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
2nd 8:32Penalty
2nd 12:20Penalty
2nd 13:30Josh Melnick (2–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 17:00Andrew Agozzino (3–1)low · 46 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
3rd 2:11Penalty
3rd 2:35Penalty
3rd 2:35Penalty
3rd 2:35Penalty
3rd 7:47Penalty
3rd 10:27Nathan Gaucher (4–1)high · 15 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid