AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 2

San Jose Barracuda at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

San Jose Barracuda
5:7
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

SJTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
22%78%
xG
2.74.4
High danger
29
Chances
1317
Shots
2835

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal35
13Scoring chances17
2High-danger chances9
2.65Expected goals4.40

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–133–80–50.6–2.4
2nd9–166–71–31.1–1.5
3rd11–64–21–11.0–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ34:49 of the 3rd15:113:15+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
22
Saves
19
Allowed
3
xGA
1.95
GSAx
-1.05
Eetu Makiniemi
Shots faced
13
Saves
9
Allowed
4
xGA
2.45
GSAx
-1.55
Anson Thornton
Shots faced
5
Saves
0
Allowed
5
xGA
0.58
GSAx
-4.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:07Shakir Mukhamadullin (1–0)medium · 9 ft · beat Anson Thornton
  • 1st 2:40Hunter Drew (1–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 1st 4:48Penalty
  • 1st 9:04Penalty
  • 1st 11:35Cameron Hebig (1–2)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 1st 16:16Travis Barron (1–3)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 1st 16:58Penalty
  • 1st 19:53Hunter Drew (1–4)low · 38 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
  • 2nd 1:52Thomas Bordeleau (2–4)medium · 13 ft · beat Anson Thornton
  • 2nd 3:17Brandon Coe (3–4)medium · 35 ft · beat Anson Thornton
  • 2nd 7:32Penalty
  • 2nd 19:34Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 2:23Jan Jeník (3–5)low · 30 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 3rd 4:49Travis Barron (3–6)medium · 14 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 3rd 5:00Nathan Todd (4–6)low · 25 ft · beat Anson Thornton
  • 3rd 10:30Penalty
  • 3rd 11:41Nick Cicek (5–6)5v4 · low · 50 ft · beat Anson Thornton
  • 3rd 13:50Penalty
  • 3rd 19:32Travis Barron (5–7)empty net · low · 54 ft · beat Magnus Chrona