AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 2

Texas Stars at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Texas Stars
4:6
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

TEXBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
47%53%
xG
3.33.2
High danger
56
Chances
1111
Shots
3535

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal35
11Scoring chances11
5High-danger chances6
3.26Expected goals3.25

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–113–42–31.2–1.0
2nd9–113–41–10.8–1.1
3rd14–135–32–21.2–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX212:08 of the 3rd7:523:57+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
35
Saves
29
Allowed
6
xGA
3.25
GSAx
-2.75
Jack Campbell
Shots faced
35
Saves
31
Allowed
4
xGA
3.26
GSAx
-0.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:36Matěj Blümel (1–0)low · wrist · 31 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 1st 2:08Penalty
  • 1st 7:34Penalty
  • 1st 7:34Penalty
  • 1st 11:17Penalty
  • 1st 11:51Lane Pederson (1–1)5v4 · high · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 0:37Cameron Wright (1–2)medium · wrist · 31 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 1:58Penalty
  • 2nd 4:07Scott Reedy (2–2)medium · wrist · 23 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 5:47Ben Gleason (2–3)low · wrist · 23 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 10:48Penalty
  • 2nd 11:58Lane Pederson (2–4)5v4 · medium · slap · 31 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 13:06Penalty
  • 2nd 16:38Matěj Blümel (3–4)low · wrist · 12 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 3rd 1:33Penalty
  • 3rd 3:36Xavier Bourgault (3–5)low · wrist · 28 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 6:18Penalty
  • 3rd 13:01Derrick Pouliot (4–5)low · wrist · 54 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 3rd 17:35Cameron Wright (4–6)medium · wrist · 23 ft · beat Matthew Murray