Laval Rocket at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Laval Rocket

3:4

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

LAVABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

57%43%

xG: 2.42.1
High danger: 42
Chances: 58
Shots: 3127

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal27

5Scoring chances8

4High-danger chances2

2.42Expected goals2.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	3–6	3–2	1.1–1.2
2nd	13–4	2–0	1–0	1.0–0.2
3rd	9–12	0–2	0–0	0.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.42
GSAx: -0.58

Strauss Mann

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.35
GSAx: +0.35

Jakub Dobeš

Shots faced: 7
Saves: 4
Allowed: 3
xGA: 0.78
GSAx: -2.22

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:14Penalty
1st 1:07Nathan Légaré (1–0)4v5 · high · 26 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 1:23Chase Wouters (1–1)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
1st 3:42Chase Wouters (1–2)medium · 7 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
1st 3:55John Stevens (1–3)high · 9 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
1st 10:20Penalty
1st 15:45Emil Heineman (2–3)grade A · 10 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 16:45Penalty
1st 17:37Xavier Simoneau (3–3)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 5:57Penalty
2nd 5:57Penalty
2nd 13:33Penalty
3rd 0:14Penalty
3rd 13:14Tristen Nielsen (3–4)medium · 15 ft · beat Strauss Mann