Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

2:3

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

LVPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 1.62.4
High danger: 31
Chances: 49
Shots: 2236

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal36

4Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances1

1.63Expected goals2.44

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–7	1–1	1–0	0.5–0.5
2nd	4–12	1–0	0–0	0.4–0.4
3rd	10–17	2–8	2–1	0.8–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 33
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.44
GSAx: -0.56

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 20
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.63
GSAx: -0.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:47Penalty
1st 6:50J.R. Avon (1–0)5v4 · low · 48 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 9:50Penalty
1st 11:59Vincent Arseneau (1–1)low · 39 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 12:56Penalty
2nd 8:39Alec Regula (1–2)low · 59 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 3:40Elliot Desnoyers (2–2)high · 11 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 9:19Justin Brazeau (2–3)medium · 13 ft · beat Cal Petersen