Rockford IceHogs at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Rockford IceHogs

1:6

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

RFDIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 3.63.6
High danger: 77
Chances: 1715
Shots: 3130

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal30

17Scoring chances15

7High-danger chances7

3.63Expected goals3.58

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–9	4–3	2–0	1.0–0.6
2nd	13–8	7–5	2–3	1.4–1.2
3rd	11–13	6–7	3–4	1.3–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	13:33	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.63
GSAx: +2.63

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 24
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.58
GSAx: -2.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:06Jake Lucchini (0–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 9:39Simon Johansson (0–2)medium · 9 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 11:42Penalty
1st 19:36Penalty
2nd 4:27Penalty
2nd 5:36Nic Petan (0–3)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 6:09Penalty
2nd 8:19Penalty
2nd 10:32Penalty
2nd 12:42Penalty
2nd 14:36Penalty
3rd 1:17Ryder Rolston (1–3)high · 10 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 6:02Penalty
3rd 7:44Vinni Lettieri (1–4)4v5 · low · 37 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 9:51Penalty
3rd 11:27Sammy Walker (1–5)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 11:51Penalty
3rd 14:17Kevin Conley (1–6)medium · 10 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 16:10Penalty