San Diego Gulls at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

San Diego Gulls

5:2

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

SDMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

68%32%

xG: 2.12.5
High danger: 40
Chances: 65
Shots: 2634

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal34

6Scoring chances5

4High-danger chances0

2.12Expected goals2.47

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–14	1–1	1–0	0.6–0.9
2nd	7–11	2–3	1–0	0.6–0.8
3rd	9–9	3–1	2–0	1.0–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Tomas Suchanek

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.47
GSAx: +0.47

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 10
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.03
GSAx: -2.97

Troy Grosenick

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 11
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.09
GSAx: +0.09

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:46Andrew Agozzino (1–0)low · 32 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
1st 7:53Penalty
1st 7:59Olen Zellweger (2–0)5v4 · low · 61 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
1st 9:51Penalty
1st 13:56Penalty
1st 13:56Penalty
1st 19:18Glenn Gawdin (3–0)high · 18 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 7:40Penalty
2nd 8:42Penalty
2nd 8:42Penalty
2nd 8:42Ben King (4–0)5v4 · high · 22 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 11:25Penalty
2nd 15:16Penalty
2nd 15:44Penalty
3rd 1:10Penalty
3rd 3:31Penalty
3rd 4:22Penalty
3rd 8:09Penalty
3rd 10:55Penalty
3rd 12:08Denis Gurianov (4–1)5v4 · low · 38 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
3rd 15:02Adam Wilsby (4–2)low · 30 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
3rd 18:20Nikita Nesterenko (5–2)empty net · low · 122 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
3rd 19:17Penalty