Henderson Silver Knights at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

1:3

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

HSKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 2.12.3
High danger: 25
Chances: 1210
Shots: 2124

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal24

12Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances5

2.10Expected goals2.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–11	2–5	0–3	0.4–1.1
2nd	10–8	7–3	2–0	1.1–0.7
3rd	6–5	3–2	0–2	0.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jordan Papirny

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.31
GSAx: -0.69

David Rittich

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 20
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.10
GSAx: +1.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:26Penalty
1st 3:53Jakub Brabenec (1–0)medium · 12 ft · beat David Rittich
1st 5:41Penalty
1st 13:19Penalty
1st 14:55Charles Hudon (1–1)5v4 · low · 45 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
1st 15:05Penalty
2nd 6:05Akil Thomas (1–2)low · 31 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
2nd 13:53Penalty
2nd 14:13Samuel Fagemo (1–3)5v4 · medium · 38 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
2nd 15:55Penalty
3rd 3:02Penalty
3rd 3:58Penalty
3rd 16:34Penalty