Hershey Bears at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Hershey Bears

1:4

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

HERSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

20%80%

xG: 1.51.8
High danger: 02
Chances: 46
Shots: 2222

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal22

4Scoring chances6

0High-danger chances2

1.46Expected goals1.80

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–7	2–1	0–1	0.5–0.6
2nd	4–10	0–4	0–1	0.1–0.9
3rd	12–5	2–1	0–0	0.8–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.46
GSAx: +0.46

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.80
GSAx: -2.20

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:53Penalty
1st 5:17Waltteri Merelä (0–1)5v4 · high · 22 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 9:19Ryan Hofer (1–1)medium · 29 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 11:35Penalty
1st 13:01Mitchell Chaffee (1–2)5v4 · low · 38 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 19:35Penalty
2nd 3:16Penalty
2nd 16:10Tristan Allard (1–3)medium · 14 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 16:20Penalty
2nd 16:20Penalty
2nd 17:29Penalty
3rd 2:13Penalty
3rd 10:28Penalty
3rd 10:28Penalty
3rd 12:38Penalty
3rd 17:24Daniel Walcott (1–4)empty net · low · 38 ft · beat Hunter Shepard