Grand Rapids Griffins at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Grand Rapids Griffins

2:5

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

GRBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

24%76%

xG: 2.53.8
High danger: 28
Chances: 812
Shots: 2630

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal30

8Scoring chances12

2High-danger chances8

2.55Expected goals3.84

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–12	1–4	0–2	0.4–1.4
2nd	10–9	4–5	1–3	1.2–1.3
3rd	10–9	3–3	1–3	1.0–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 25
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.84
GSAx: -1.16

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: +0.55

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:37Simon Edvinsson (1–0)low · 50 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
1st 6:09Matthew Boucher (1–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 7:51Penalty
1st 12:49Penalty
1st 13:12Egor Sokolov (1–2)5v4 · medium · 41 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 16:41Roby Järventie (1–3)high · 5 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 3:34Joel L’Esperance (2–3)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 6:16Penalty
2nd 11:29Penalty
2nd 13:48Penalty
2nd 16:09Josh Currie (2–4)grade A · 17 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 2:30Penalty
3rd 8:54Penalty
3rd 10:15Penalty
3rd 13:23Penalty
3rd 18:02Maxence Guenette (2–5)empty net · low · 154 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa