Cleveland Monsters at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Cleveland Monsters

3:5

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

CLEWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

67%33%

xG: 3.12.1
High danger: 53
Chances: 127
Shots: 3728

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal28

12Scoring chances7

5High-danger chances3

3.15Expected goals2.12

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–10	5–1	3–1	1.1–0.6
2nd	13–8	4–1	2–1	1.3–0.6
3rd	12–10	3–5	0–1	0.7–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLE	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 34
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.15
GSAx: +0.15

Daniil Tarasov

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.11
GSAx: -1.89

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:12Penalty
1st 2:09Roman Ahcan (1–0)4v5 · high · 9 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
1st 12:19Penalty
2nd 6:16Ty Smith (1–1)low · rebound · 55 ft · beat Daniil Tarasov
2nd 9:31Raivis Ansons (1–2)high · 7 ft · beat Daniil Tarasov
2nd 10:59Penalty
2nd 12:12Penalty
2nd 19:29Penalty
3rd 11:39Alex Nylander (1–3)high · 8 ft · beat Daniil Tarasov
3rd 17:30Corey Andonovski (1–4)empty net · medium · 25 ft · beat Daniil Tarasov
3rd 17:44James Malatesta (2–4)medium · 32 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 18:36Penalty
3rd 19:09Alex Nylander (2–5)empty net · low · 111 ft
3rd 19:28Roman Ahcan (3–5)low · 42 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg