AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 8

Chicago Wolves at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Chicago Wolves
2:5
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

CHITEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
24%76%
xG
3.05.1
High danger
49
Chances
916
Shots
3238

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

024P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal38
9Scoring chances16
4High-danger chances9
2.97Expected goals5.06

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–132–31–10.6–1.2
2nd15–85–52–21.5–1.1
3rd10–172–81–60.9–2.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CHI−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CHI38:16 of the 3rd11:4411:44+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Adam Scheel
Shots faced
38
Saves
33
Allowed
5
xGA
5.06
GSAx
+0.06
Matthew Murray
Shots faced
32
Saves
30
Allowed
2
xGA
2.97
GSAx
+0.97

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:47Ryan Wagner (1–0)low · 65 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 8:24Penalty
  • 1st 11:16Penalty
  • 1st 12:16Penalty
  • 2nd 1:43Mavrik Bourque (1–1)high · rebound · 9 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 2nd 2:44Antonio Stranges (1–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 2nd 5:04Penalty
  • 2nd 7:27Penalty
  • 2nd 11:43Penalty
  • 2nd 12:41Penalty
  • 3rd 4:38Penalty
  • 3rd 5:59Penalty
  • 3rd 5:59Oskar Bäck (1–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 3rd 7:27Penalty
  • 3rd 7:27Penalty
  • 3rd 8:16Matěj Blümel (1–4)5v4 · high · 33 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 3rd 10:50Penalty
  • 3rd 12:28Penalty
  • 3rd 13:25Fredrik Karlström (1–5)empty net · low · 45 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 3rd 14:20Ryan Wagner (2–5)5v4 · low · 39 ft · beat Matthew Murray