Milwaukee Admirals at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Milwaukee Admirals

4:2

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

MILIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 2.83.2
High danger: 55
Chances: 1112
Shots: 3339

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal39

11Scoring chances12

5High-danger chances5

2.80Expected goals3.22

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–12	3–2	1–1	1.0–0.9
2nd	11–14	5–5	2–3	1.1–1.2
3rd	9–13	3–5	2–1	0.7–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Zane McIntyre

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: -1.20

Troy Grosenick

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 26
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.15
GSAx: +2.15

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 11
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.07
GSAx: -0.93

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:51Penalty
1st 15:04Penalty
1st 19:15Penalty
2nd 11:35Penalty
2nd 11:51Denis Gurianov (1–0)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
2nd 12:26Penalty
2nd 13:17Mark Jankowski (2–0)5v4 · high · backhand · 8 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
2nd 14:08Penalty
2nd 16:33Penalty
2nd 17:56Penalty
3rd 7:10Jake Lucchini (2–1)low · 29 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 9:56Kevin Conley (2–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 10:09Penalty
3rd 16:08Egor Afanasyev (3–2)high · 10 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
3rd 18:23Penalty
3rd 19:40Jasper Weatherby (4–2)empty net · low · 74 ft · beat Zane McIntyre