Tucson Roadrunners at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Tucson Roadrunners

2:4

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

TUCCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

57%43%

xG: 1.91.9
High danger: 32
Chances: 77
Shots: 2127

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal27

7Scoring chances7

3High-danger chances2

1.86Expected goals1.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–11	2–3	1–0	0.7–0.7
2nd	8–9	3–2	1–1	0.6–0.7
3rd	5–7	2–2	1–1	0.5–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.86
GSAx: -2.14

Arvid Holm

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.86
GSAx: -0.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:06Penalty
1st 3:58Penalty
1st 6:14Penalty
1st 13:05Penalty
2nd 3:55Brad Hunt (0–1)high · 5 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 7:34Brad Hunt (0–2)low · 50 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 10:26Aku Räty (1–2)low · 47 ft · beat Arvid Holm
2nd 12:06Penalty
2nd 13:48Penalty
2nd 17:14Penalty
2nd 18:20Penalty
2nd 18:20Penalty
3rd 2:12Ondrej Pavel (1–3)high · 7 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 6:16Colin Theisen (2–3)low · 54 ft · beat Arvid Holm
3rd 14:01Penalty
3rd 19:04Tanner Kero (2–4)empty net · low · 139 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 19:19Penalty