AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 8

Bakersfield Condors at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Bakersfield Condors
6:4
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

BAKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
73%27%
xG
2.82.1
High danger
63
Chances
116
Shots
2724

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal24
11Scoring chances6
6High-danger chances3
2.84Expected goals2.15

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–93–12–10.9–0.6
2nd6–112–41–10.6–1.0
3rd11–46–13–11.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

David Rittich
Shots faced
26
Saves
21
Allowed
5
xGA
2.77
GSAx
-2.23
Jack Campbell
Shots faced
24
Saves
20
Allowed
4
xGA
2.15
GSAx
-1.85

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:08Cameron Wright (1–0)low · 28 ft · beat David Rittich
  • 1st 5:37Penalty
  • 1st 6:07Penalty
  • 1st 10:17Penalty
  • 1st 10:40Samuel Fagemo (1–1)5v4 · low · 40 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 1st 18:54Penalty
  • 1st 19:37Xavier Bourgault (2–1)5v4 · high · 18 ft · beat David Rittich
  • 1st 19:59Raphael Lavoie (3–1)medium · 23 ft · beat David Rittich
  • 2nd 0:57Penalty
  • 2nd 1:58Charles Hudon (3–2)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 2:20Penalty
  • 2nd 3:18Penalty
  • 2nd 3:18Penalty
  • 2nd 4:41Penalty
  • 2nd 6:34Penalty
  • 2nd 9:32Penalty
  • 2nd 11:22Penalty
  • 2nd 12:24Akil Thomas (3–3)4v5 · medium · 34 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 17:23Penalty
  • 3rd 2:40Noel Hoefenmayer (4–3)low · 31 ft · beat David Rittich
  • 3rd 4:16Penalty
  • 3rd 8:45Cameron Wright (5–3)low · 33 ft · beat David Rittich
  • 3rd 10:03Penalty
  • 3rd 10:03Penalty
  • 3rd 16:27Penalty
  • 3rd 18:40T.J. Tynan (5–4)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 3rd 19:53Drake Caggiula (6–4)empty net · low · 32 ft