Hartford Wolf Pack at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Hartford Wolf Pack

1:5

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

HFDLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 2.22.9
High danger: 25
Chances: 58
Shots: 2629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal29

5Scoring chances8

2High-danger chances5

2.18Expected goals2.94

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–12	1–1	0–1	0.6–0.7
2nd	10–11	3–6	2–3	1.2–1.7
3rd	6–6	1–1	0–1	0.4–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olof Lindbom

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.93
GSAx: -2.07

Jakub Dobeš

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.18
GSAx: +1.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:14Blake Hillman (1–0)low · 17 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
1st 4:45Riley Kidney (1–1)high · 11 ft · beat Olof Lindbom
1st 15:15Penalty
2nd 4:43Penalty
2nd 6:03Brandon Gignac (1–2)4v5 · medium · 34 ft · beat Olof Lindbom
2nd 8:32Riley Kidney (1–3)medium · 21 ft · beat Olof Lindbom
2nd 9:09Penalty
2nd 15:18Penalty
2nd 15:18Penalty
2nd 15:18Penalty
2nd 17:27Nolan Yaremko (1–4)high · 13 ft · beat Olof Lindbom
3rd 5:35Penalty
3rd 12:13Penalty
3rd 12:47Penalty
3rd 15:05Penalty
3rd 15:13Jared Davidson (1–5)5v4 · low · 55 ft · beat Olof Lindbom