Cleveland Monsters at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Cleveland Monsters

0:6

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

CLEHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

15%85%

xG: 1.73.7
High danger: 49
Chances: 516
Shots: 2133

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal33

5Scoring chances16

4High-danger chances9

1.73Expected goals3.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–7	1–2	1–1	0.6–0.7
2nd	8–13	2–10	1–6	0.6–1.9
3rd	6–13	2–4	2–2	0.6–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLE	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.004 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 21
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.73
GSAx: +1.73

Daniil Tarasov

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 16
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.74
GSAx: +0.74

Pavel Cajan

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 11
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.99
GSAx: -3.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:58Penalty
1st 5:39Alex Limoges (0–1)5v4 · medium · 46 ft · beat Pavel Cajan
1st 8:53Penalty
1st 9:58Ethen Frank (0–2)5v4 · high · 15 ft · beat Pavel Cajan
1st 10:13Penalty
2nd 1:58Penalty
2nd 2:12Penalty
2nd 2:58Pierrick Dubé (0–3)5v4 · grade A · 153 ft · beat Pavel Cajan
2nd 4:32Penalty
2nd 7:37Mike Sgarbossa (0–4)high · 24 ft · beat Pavel Cajan
2nd 9:50Pierrick Dubé (0–5)high · 10 ft · beat Pavel Cajan
2nd 13:37Penalty
3rd 2:10Penalty
3rd 2:54Penalty
3rd 6:05Penalty
3rd 8:33Hendrix Lapierre (0–6)low · 41 ft · beat Daniil Tarasov
3rd 15:19Penalty