Milwaukee Admirals at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Milwaukee Admirals

4:1

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

MILIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 2.42.5
High danger: 36
Chances: 710
Shots: 2625

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal25

7Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances6

2.37Expected goals2.54

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	3–3	1–2	0.8–0.9
2nd	9–6	2–2	2–1	1.0–0.6
3rd	9–9	2–5	0–3	0.6–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	2	15:54 of the 3rd	4:06	4:06	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.54
GSAx: +1.54

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.28
GSAx: -0.72

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:57Penalty
1st 6:04Denis Gurianov (1–0)high · tip · 10 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
1st 6:58Penalty
1st 6:58Penalty
1st 18:05Penalty
2nd 2:03Penalty
2nd 12:46Penalty
2nd 12:46Penalty
2nd 14:40Penalty
2nd 15:07Penalty
2nd 16:29Jordan Gross (2–0)5v4 · low · slap · 50 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 3:56Penalty
3rd 5:03Jujhar Khaira (2–1)5v4 · high · tip · 18 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 15:06Penalty
3rd 15:54Mark Jankowski (3–1)5v4 · low · rebound · 40 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 19:55Penalty
3rd 19:55Egor Afanasyev (4–1)empty net · low · wrist · 18 ft