Bridgeport Islanders at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Bridgeport Islanders

1:5

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

BRISPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

17%83%

xG: 2.33.1
High danger: 17
Chances: 612
Shots: 3529

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal29

6Scoring chances12

1High-danger chances7

2.25Expected goals3.06

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–16	3–8	0–6	0.8–2.0
2nd	11–5	2–0	1–0	0.8–0.1
3rd	13–8	1–4	0–1	0.6–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	3	7:18 of the 3rd	12:42	12:42	+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 34
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: +1.25

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.06
GSAx: -1.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:40Mathias Laferrière (0–1)grade A · 10 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 7:50Dylan Coghlan (0–2)low · 41 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 3:18Penalty
3rd 3:18Penalty
3rd 6:15Penalty
3rd 6:15Penalty
3rd 7:18Nathan Walker (0–3)high · 12 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 7:40Wyatt Kalynuk (0–4)medium · 20 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 10:27Matthew Maggio (1–4)low · 56 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 12:12Penalty
3rd 13:59Dylan Coghlan (1–5)5v4 · low · 56 ft · beat Jakub Skarek