San Diego Gulls at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

San Diego Gulls

5:1

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

SDRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

82%18%

xG: 2.61.4
High danger: 31
Chances: 104
Shots: 3222

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal22

10Scoring chances4

3High-danger chances1

2.55Expected goals1.38

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–11	2–1	1–1	0.8–0.6
2nd	12–4	5–1	2–0	1.2–0.3
3rd	8–7	3–2	0–0	0.5–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 27
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: -2.45

Tomas Suchanek

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.38
GSAx: +0.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:47Penalty
2nd 6:32Glenn Gawdin (1–0)medium · 16 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 10:38Penalty
2nd 13:24Brayden Tracey (2–0)low · 59 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 13:48Penalty
2nd 14:07Penalty
2nd 18:09Chase De Leo (3–0)high · 9 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 4:42Penalty
3rd 11:54Tyson Hinds (4–0)medium · 8 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 13:57Logan Nijhoff (4–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
3rd 16:31Penalty
3rd 16:38Judd Caulfield (5–1)empty net · low · 153 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber