Chicago Wolves at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Chicago Wolves

5:8

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

CHITEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 3.33.2
High danger: 21
Chances: 1211
Shots: 3434

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal34

12Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances1

3.29Expected goals3.16

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–13	2–3	0–1	0.7–1.3
2nd	12–9	5–2	0–0	1.2–0.7
3rd	11–12	5–6	2–0	1.4–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 29
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.29
GSAx: -1.71

Keith Kinkaid

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 26
Allowed: 7
xGA: 3.07
GSAx: -3.93

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:19Matěj Blümel (0–1)low · 20 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
1st 6:53Penalty
1st 7:39Oskar Bäck (0–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 31 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
1st 7:47Kyle Marino (1–2)low · 45 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 10:22Alex Green (2–2)low · 65 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 12:00Penalty
1st 18:35Nicholas Caamano (2–3)low · 40 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
2nd 7:48Penalty
2nd 7:48Penalty
2nd 7:48Penalty
2nd 12:28Penalty
2nd 12:28Penalty
2nd 12:28Penalty
2nd 13:37Penalty
2nd 14:34Rocco Grimaldi (3–3)5v4 · low · 53 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 15:01Curtis McKenzie (3–4)low · 16 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
2nd 17:41Penalty
3rd 1:06Antonio Stranges (3–5)medium · 32 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
3rd 2:37Penalty
3rd 3:38Rocco Grimaldi (4–5)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 4:16Penalty
3rd 5:11Rocco Grimaldi (5–5)5v4 · low · 66 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 7:18Scott Reedy (5–6)low · 41 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
3rd 8:48Penalty
3rd 8:48Penalty
3rd 8:48Penalty
3rd 15:58Penalty
3rd 18:36Derrick Pouliot (5–7)empty net · low · 167 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
3rd 19:59Penalty
3rd 19:59Michael Karow (5–8)empty net · low · 36 ft
3rd 20:00Penalty