AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 9

Tucson Roadrunners at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Tucson Roadrunners
4:3
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

TUCCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
81%19%
xG
2.31.5
High danger
31
Chances
93
Shots
2824

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal24
9Scoring chances3
3High-danger chances1
2.27Expected goals1.46

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–65–11–00.9–0.4
2nd6–112–21–10.5–0.8
3rd13–72–01–00.9–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL119:37 of the 3rd0:230:23+0.007 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arvid Holm
Shots faced
28
Saves
24
Allowed
4
xGA
2.27
GSAx
-1.73
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
24
Saves
21
Allowed
3
xGA
1.46
GSAx
-1.54

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:17Victor Söderström (1–0)low · 33 ft · beat Arvid Holm
  • 1st 7:40Nate Clurman (1–1)low · 26 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 8:57Penalty
  • 1st 10:24Penalty
  • 1st 11:48Penalty
  • 1st 17:05Penalty
  • 2nd 4:29Wyatt Aamodt (1–2)low · 43 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 10:15Penalty
  • 2nd 10:15Penalty
  • 2nd 10:15Penalty
  • 2nd 18:13Cédric Paré (1–3)high · 11 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 9:13Peter DiLiberatore (2–3)low · 45 ft · beat Arvid Holm
  • 3rd 10:30Cameron Hebig (3–3)low · 27 ft · beat Arvid Holm
  • 3rd 19:37Josh Doan (4–3)high · 6 ft · beat Arvid Holm