AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 9

Ontario Reign at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Ontario Reign
2:1
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

ONTBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
74%26%
xG
2.41.5
High danger
32
Chances
104
Shots
2723

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal23
10Scoring chances4
3High-danger chances2
2.35Expected goals1.47

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–83–20–20.6–0.6
2nd12–64–12–01.1–0.4
3rd7–93–11–00.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
27
Saves
25
Allowed
2
xGA
2.35
GSAx
+0.35
Erik Portillo
Shots faced
23
Saves
22
Allowed
1
xGA
1.47
GSAx
+0.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:33Penalty
  • 1st 8:29Penalty
  • 1st 8:29Penalty
  • 1st 8:29Penalty
  • 1st 10:30Carter Savoie (0–1)high · tip · 8 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 1:57Penalty
  • 2nd 4:01Penalty
  • 2nd 4:36Charles Hudon (1–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 37 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 5:02Francesco Pinelli (2–1)low · wrist · 28 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 6:13Penalty
  • 2nd 19:09Penalty
  • 3rd 19:46Penalty