Coachella Valley Firebirds at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Coachella Valley Firebirds

4:2

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

CVABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

57%43%

xG: 2.82.1
High danger: 35
Chances: 119
Shots: 3524

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal24

11Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances5

2.83Expected goals2.11

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–13	4–7	1–5	1.0–1.5
2nd	18–1	3–0	1–0	1.0–0.0
3rd	7–10	4–2	1–0	0.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.83
GSAx: -1.17

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.11
GSAx: +0.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:03Max McCormick (1–0)medium · 20 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 10:28Linus Karlsson (1–1)high · 13 ft · beat Chris Driedger
1st 15:50Penalty
1st 17:23Sheldon Dries (1–2)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Chris Driedger
2nd 5:46Jaycob Megna (2–2)low · 60 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 9:45Ville Ottavainen (3–2)low · 30 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 14:07Luke Henman (4–2)low · 42 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 16:04Penalty
3rd 2:40Penalty
3rd 5:22Penalty
3rd 9:55Penalty
3rd 10:05Penalty