Syracuse Crunch at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Syracuse Crunch

1:4

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

SYRUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

28%72%

xG: 1.62.5
High danger: 24
Chances: 610
Shots: 1927

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal27

6Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances4

1.56Expected goals2.55

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–13	1–6	0–2	0.4–1.3
2nd	8–7	4–3	2–1	0.9–0.7
3rd	5–7	1–1	0–1	0.3–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	2	15:48 of the 3rd	4:12	4:12	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: -1.45

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 15
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.44
GSAx: +0.44

Erik Källgren

Shots faced: 3
Saves: 3
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.12
GSAx: +0.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:39Penalty
1st 13:50Penalty
1st 15:07Ryan Schmelzer (0–1)5v4 · high · 28 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 17:30Penalty
2nd 6:33Penalty
2nd 8:10Penalty
2nd 10:23Penalty
2nd 12:43Penalty
2nd 17:34Penalty
3rd 2:42Penalty
3rd 8:00Devante Stephens (1–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
3rd 8:48Penalty
3rd 13:07Graeme Clarke (1–2)low · 18 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 15:48Samuel Laberge (1–3)high · rebound · 16 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 18:42Shane Bowers (1–4)empty net · low · 51 ft · beat Matt Tomkins