Charlotte Checkers at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Charlotte Checkers

3:1

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

CLTHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

86%14%

xG: 3.91.4
High danger: 83
Chances: 155
Shots: 2714

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal14

15Scoring chances5

8High-danger chances3

3.92Expected goals1.36

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–5	6–3	4–2	2.1–0.6
2nd	6–3	3–2	2–1	0.7–0.4
3rd	9–6	6–0	2–0	1.2–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.92
GSAx: +0.92

Spencer Knight

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 13
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.36
GSAx: +0.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:11Mackie Samoskevich (1–0)grade A · 11 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 3:03Patrick Giles (2–0)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 12:25Penalty
1st 12:42Hendrix Lapierre (2–1)4v5 · high · 8 ft · beat Spencer Knight
1st 15:45Penalty
2nd 1:01Penalty
2nd 7:55Penalty
2nd 14:23Penalty
3rd 2:52Penalty
3rd 6:45Mackie Samoskevich (3–1)high · rebound · 18 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 12:21Penalty