Colorado Eagles at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Colorado Eagles

2:1

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

COLBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 3.33.0
High danger: 65
Chances: 1311
Shots: 3432

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal32

13Scoring chances11

6High-danger chances5

3.31Expected goals3.00

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–12	4–1	2–0	0.9–0.7
2nd	18–6	7–2	3–1	1.7–0.6
3rd	6–14	2–8	1–4	0.6–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	19:13 of the 3rd	0:47	0:47	+0.016 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.31
GSAx: +1.31

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.00
GSAx: +2.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:25Penalty
1st 10:24Penalty
1st 12:35Penalty
2nd 1:09Oskar Olausson (1–0)low · wrist · 54 ft · beat Jack Campbell
2nd 13:15Philip Broberg (1–1)low · wrist · 11 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 17:46Penalty
3rd 6:09Penalty
3rd 8:52Penalty
3rd 9:43Penalty
3rd 13:33Penalty
3rd 18:11Penalty
3rd 19:13Tanner Kero (2–1)5v4 · high · wrist · rebound · 9 ft · beat Jack Campbell