Texas Stars at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Texas Stars

2:4

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

TEXGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 2.42.9
High danger: 46
Chances: 710
Shots: 2824

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal24

7Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances6

2.44Expected goals2.90

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	18–8	4–3	2–1	1.6–0.7
2nd	5–9	2–3	1–2	0.6–1.1
3rd	5–7	1–4	1–3	0.3–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.44
GSAx: +0.44

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 20
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: -0.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:18Penalty
1st 18:06Matthew Seminoff (1–0)high · wrist · 6 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 4:27Fredrik Karlström (2–0)high · wrist · 12 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 7:11Tyler Spezia (2–1)low · 46 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 9:11Penalty
2nd 11:27Penalty
2nd 11:31Penalty
2nd 17:28Penalty
2nd 17:44Carter Mazur (2–2)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 6 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 18:50Antti Tuomisto (2–3)low · 52 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 11:48Penalty
3rd 19:52Jonatan Berggren (2–4)empty net · grade A · 3 ft