AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 15

Toronto Marlies at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Toronto Marlies
8:2
Final
Providence Bruins

The sheet

TORPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
57%43%
xG
3.02.7
High danger
53
Chances
1312
Shots
2934

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal34
13Scoring chances12
5High-danger chances3
3.00Expected goals2.67

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–152–70–30.7–1.5
2nd9–76–24–01.3–0.5
3rd10–125–31–01.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

PRO−50:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
PRO50:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.004 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
34
Saves
32
Allowed
2
xGA
2.67
GSAx
+0.67
Brandon Bussi
Shots faced
17
Saves
12
Allowed
5
xGA
1.89
GSAx
-3.11
Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
12
Saves
9
Allowed
3
xGA
1.12
GSAx
-1.88

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:43Penalty
  • 1st 9:18Penalty
  • 1st 9:18Penalty
  • 1st 9:18Penalty
  • 1st 9:18Penalty
  • 1st 13:55Jayson Megna (0–1)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 16:06Dylan Gambrell (1–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 1st 18:45Penalty
  • 1st 19:34Logan Shaw (2–1)4v5 · medium · 15 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 3:15Penalty
  • 2nd 4:07Logan Shaw (3–1)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 5:55Mikko Kokkonen (4–1)low · 54 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 2nd 8:34Kieffer Bellows (5–1)high · 14 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 2nd 11:38Penalty
  • 2nd 11:38Penalty
  • 2nd 11:38Penalty
  • 2nd 11:55Dylan Gambrell (6–1)5v4 · high · 28 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 2nd 15:25Penalty
  • 2nd 17:34Penalty
  • 3rd 1:16Matteo Pietroniro (7–1)low · 37 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 3rd 10:40Topi Niemelä (8–1)medium · rebound · 28 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 3rd 13:29Penalty
  • 3rd 14:32Georgii Merkulov (8–2)5v4 · low · 44 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 19:19Penalty