AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 15

Milwaukee Admirals at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Milwaukee Admirals
5:1
Final
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

MILMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
87%13%
xG
4.22.1
High danger
102
Chances
186
Shots
3531

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal31
18Scoring chances6
10High-danger chances2
4.19Expected goals2.07

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st20–910–25–02.3–0.6
2nd7–143–32–20.7–1.1
3rd8–85–13–01.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB35:52 of the 3rd14:0814:08+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia
Shots faced
35
Saves
30
Allowed
5
xGA
4.19
GSAx
-0.81
Yaroslav Askarov
Shots faced
31
Saves
30
Allowed
1
xGA
2.07
GSAx
+1.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:25Penalty
  • 1st 0:25Penalty
  • 1st 0:25Penalty
  • 1st 5:30Penalty
  • 1st 11:44Penalty
  • 1st 14:18Penalty
  • 1st 14:54Penalty
  • 1st 15:35Fedor Svechkov (1–0)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 1st 16:49Penalty
  • 2nd 2:37Cal O’Reilly (2–0)medium · 13 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 4:08Penalty
  • 2nd 6:17Penalty
  • 2nd 6:30Penalty
  • 2nd 6:37Fedor Svechkov (3–0)high · 19 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 8:23Wyatt Bongiovanni (3–1)4v5 · high · 9 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 3rd 5:52Cal O’Reilly (4–1)high · 20 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 3rd 9:05Penalty
  • 3rd 15:13Marc Del Gaizo (5–1)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Collin Delia