Abbotsford Canucks at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Abbotsford Canucks

0:5

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ABBTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

34%66%

xG: 1.42.8
High danger: 33
Chances: 56
Shots: 2126

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal26

5Scoring chances6

3High-danger chances3

1.38Expected goals2.78

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–5	1–1	1–0	0.4–0.4
2nd	4–16	2–5	1–3	0.4–2.2
3rd	10–5	2–0	1–0	0.6–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.004 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artūrs Šilovs

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.78
GSAx: -2.22

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 21
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.38
GSAx: +1.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:54Penalty
1st 12:02Aku Räty (0–1)low · 41 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
1st 14:05Penalty
1st 19:58Penalty
2nd 1:02John Leonard (0–2)4v5 · low · 40 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
2nd 1:55Josh Doan (0–3)4v5 · high · 26 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
2nd 9:08Jan Jeník (0–4)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
2nd 10:03Ryan McGregor (0–5)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
2nd 14:03Penalty
2nd 14:38Penalty
3rd 11:29Penalty
3rd 18:25Penalty