Texas Stars at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Texas Stars

2:6

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

TEXCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 2.92.9
High danger: 34
Chances: 1411
Shots: 3130

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal30

14Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances4

2.89Expected goals2.88

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–7	8–3	1–1	1.3–0.6
2nd	15–6	6–2	2–1	1.4–0.6
3rd	4–17	0–6	0–2	0.3–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Keith Kinkaid

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.89
GSAx: +0.89

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 24
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.88
GSAx: -3.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:51Rocco Grimaldi (0–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 15:40Penalty
1st 19:31Penalty
2nd 0:57Curtis McKenzie (1–1)5v4 · medium · 20 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
2nd 1:29Penalty
2nd 1:29Penalty
2nd 4:59Nathan Sucese (1–2)low · 36 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 8:11Penalty
2nd 11:30Penalty
2nd 12:30Rocco Grimaldi (1–3)5v4 · medium · 18 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 3:00Penalty
3rd 8:14Alex Petrovic (2–3)low · 54 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
3rd 8:59Penalty
3rd 10:19Vasily Ponomarev (2–4)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 10:46Penalty
3rd 10:46Penalty
3rd 10:46Penalty
3rd 13:10Vasily Ponomarev (2–5)medium · 21 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 15:20Matt Donovan (2–6)empty net · low · 148 ft · beat Rémi Poirier